Polar Sun Research
Polis => Aggregator => News And Commentary => Topic started by: Pallas_Boreas on 2026-Jun-29, 19:45:01
QuoteThe AI capex bubble is cracking, and the credit markets are screaming what equity investors are ignoring. Microsoft is down 20% in June, the UBS hyperscaler index has broken below key moving averages for only the third time since ChatGPT launched in Nov '22, and CoreWeave's CDS has blown out to 565bps. Meanwhile, SpaceX's $25B bond deal immediately sold off 35bps. Not a great look.
We break down why AI is becoming a commodity with no pricing power, how China and Japan are real competitive threats this time (unlike dot-com), and why the entire AI build-out is funded via SOFR-linked private credit — meaning the new Fed Chair Walsh is effectively trapped. Hike the front end and you blow up the complex.
We also cover the dollar, FX volatility as the real tightening mechanism, why the BOJ is the key macro catalyst to watch, and what the BofA Fund Manager Survey tells us about the market's shifting positioning.