QuoteThere is a recurring moment before financial collapses when the public becomes least capable of recognizing danger because the visible surface of the system still appears triumphant. Markets rise, headlines celebrate record highs, and investors convince themselves that soaring asset prices are proof the underlying economy remains healthy. The final stage of speculative cycles rarely feels like panic. More often, it feels like vindication. Skeptics are mocked, risk is dismissed as pessimism, and the crowd mistakes momentum for stability precisely as the foundations underneath it begin to weaken.
QuoteThe federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve as it uses the Interest on Reserve Balances rate to steer the federal funds rate toward the target range.(2)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target range. The Fed's primary tool for influencing the federal funds rate is the interest the Fed pays on the funds that banks hold as reserve balances at their Federal Reserve Bank, which is the Interest on Reserves Balances (IORB) rate. Because banks are unlikely to lend funds in the federal funds market for less than they get paid in their reserve balance account at the Federal Reserve, the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is an effective tool for guiding the federal funds rate. (3) Whether the Federal Reserve raises or lowers the target range for the federal funds rate depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may temper economic activity by raising the target range for federal funds rate, and increasing the IORB rate to steer the federal funds rate into the target range. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may spur greater economic activity by lowering the target range for federal funds rate, and decreasing the IORB rate to steer the federal funds rate into the target range. (3) Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.
The federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)
References
(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. "Federal funds." Fedpoints, August 2007.
(2) Monetary Policy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
(3) The Fed Explained, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
For further information, see The Fed's New Monetary Policy Tools, Page One Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
QuoteThe interest rate on reserve balances (IORB rate) is the rate of interest that the Federal Reserve pays on balances maintained by or on behalf of eligible institutions in master accounts at Federal Reserve Banks. The interest rate is set by the Board of Governors, and it is an important tool of monetary policy.
QuoteSteve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, explains the U.S. intervention in the yen, Japan's currency weakness, lessons from the Asian financial crisis, and the forces driving U.S. bond yields and inflation.Link:
QuoteBelow is my column in the New York Post on the sharp decline in millionaires in New York, costing the state billions as many flee. The exodus has been building for years but may now be accelerating. As Mayor Mamdani holds another press conference promising to end the "violence of evictions," businesses are reading the writing on the wall. Rather than work to make the state more attractive to wealthy residents and businesses, Democrats are seeking to diminish the appeal of two-tax states. They want to tap into a long-barred area of taxation: the wealth rather than just the income of citizens. By passing a national wealth tax, Democrats will reduce the benefit of fleeing high-tax states like California and New York.
QuoteThe blowback against data centers escalated this morning, when New York became first state in the nation to enact a moratorium on data centers, pausing construction on new facilities for one year.
QuoteThis week, SpaceX filed the prospectus for what is expected to be the largest IPO in history. The document is extraordinary — part financial disclosure, part science fiction, and part governance structure that a corporate law professor has described as offering shareholders "no votes, no sales, and no suits." We look at the numbers, the products that don't yet exist, the AI business that SpaceX's own engineers won't use, the related-party transactions, the compensation package tied to a Mars colony the company admits is "improbable," and the one rocket that everything depends on. Everything I am about to tell you comes directly from the filing.