Polar Sun Research

The last book written by the trading legend W.D. Gann.

QuoteFOREWORD


In 1910 at the request of friends I wrote a small booklet entitled "Speculation a Profitable Profession." In this booklet I gave the rules that helped me to make a success in my personal trading.


January, 1923, I wrote, Truth of the Stock Tape to help those who were trying to help themselves in speculation and investment trading. This book was favorably received by the public and many proclaimed it my Masterpiece. The book fulfilled its mission as evidenced by letters from grateful readers. After predicting the great panic in 1929 there was a call for a new book to bring Truth of the Stock Tape up to date. I answered that call in the early part of 1930 by writing Wall Street Stock Selector giving my readers the benefit of practical experience in which I developed new rules since 1923. In Wall Street Stock Selector I predicted the "Investors Panic," and said that it would be the greatest panic the world had ever known. This prediction was fulfilled by the panic which ended in July, 1932, with some stocks declining to the lowest levels they had reached for the past 40 to 50 years.


A great advance followed the 1932 panic and my rules helped many people to make substantial profits.


In 1935 satisfied readers asked me to write a new book. I responded to that call by writing my third book New Stock Trend Detector in the latter part of 1935, giving the benefit of my experience and new and practical rules which I had discovered.


Since 1935 many changes have taken place; the market passed through the panic of 1937 which was forecast by me. The decline ended in March, 1928, and a minor Bull Market followed to November 10, 1938.


The second World War started September 1, 1939, and the United States entered the war in December, 1941. After we were in the war a further liquidation in stocks occurred and final lows were reached April 28, 1942, when stocks sold below the low level of 1938 at the lowest levels since 1932.


From the lows in 1942 a prolonged advance followed which continued after the end of the Japanese War in August, 1945.


1946, May 29, stocks sold at the highest level they had reached since 1929. My rules and my forecast called the top of this advance and the sharp decline which followed to October 30, 1946, when final low was reached.


Fourteen years have passed since writing my last book and I have gained more knowledge through actual market operations. The world is upset and confused; investors and traders are puzzled over the business depression and the decline in the stock market. Many have written requesting me to write a new book. With the desire to help others I have written "45 Years in Wall Street" giving the benefit of my experience and my new discoveries to aid others in these difficult times. I am now in my 72nd year; fame would do me no good. I have more income than J can spend for my needs, therefore, my only object in writing this new book is to give to others the most valuable gift possible -- KNOWLEDGE! If a few find the way to make safer investments my object will have been accomplished and satisfied readers will be my reward.


W.D. Gann.
July 2, 1949

A great book published in 1894 by Arthur Kitson. When this was written science felt something different to men of that time then it does to men of today. The concept was of investigation free of superstition, the use of reason for "progress", more a method of a dreamed Utopia when man had not seen the stupendous result of the modern world; for good or evil. This Utopia it turns out is a Platonic technocratic monster from his Republic; a downward spiraling of material nihilism resembling an Archimedes Spiral, where only the specially curated are allowed to ruin the world.

Sound monetary policy is the root solution to the problems choking out the political economy which is a direct cause to many sociological and political problems. 

A working paper from the IMF, Research Department from 2012.

QuoteAbstract



At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.

From the Bank of England Q! 2014 bulletin;

QuoteIn the modern economy, most money takes the form of bank deposits. But how those bank deposits are created is often misunderstood: the principal way is through commercial banks making loans. Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower's bank account, thereby creating new money.

The reality of how money is created today differs from the description found in some economics textbooks:

• Rather than banks receiving deposits when households save and then lending them out, bank lending creates deposits.
• In normal times, the central bank does not fix the amount of money in circulation, nor is central bank money 'multiplied up' into more loans and deposits.

Although commercial banks create money through lending, they cannot do so freely without limit. Banks are limited in how much they can lend if they are to remain profitable in a competitive banking system. Prudential regulation also acts as a constraint on banks' activities in order to maintain the resilience of the financial system. And the households and companies who receive the money created by new lending may take actions that affect the stock of money — they could quickly 'destroy' money by using it to repay their existing debt, for instance.

Monetary policy acts as the ultimate limit on money creation. The Bank of England aims to make sure the amount of money creation in the economy is consistent with low and stable inflation. In normal times, the Bank of England implements monetary policy by setting the interest rate on central bank reserves. This then influences a range of interest rates in the economy, including those on bank loans.

In exceptional circumstances, when interest rates are at their effective lower bound, money creation and spending in the economy may still be too low to be consistent with the central bank's monetary policy objectives. One possible response is to undertake a series of asset purchases, or 'quantitative easing' (QE). QE is intended to boost the amount of money in the economy directly by purchasing assets, mainly from non-bank financial companies.

QE initially increases the amount of bank deposits those companies hold (in place of the assets they sell). Those companies will then wish to rebalance their portfolios of assets by buying higher-yielding assets, raising the price of those assets and stimulating spending in the economy.


As a by-product of QE, new central bank reserves are created. But these are not an important part of the transmission mechanism. This article explains how, just as in normal times, these reserves cannot be multiplied into more loans and deposits and how these reserves do not represent 'free money' for banks.

A video that was linked to in the document:

Iam a newbie on my own site. 

Now it is much easier to read, colours are more balanced, and the forum looks better. Which is all subjective to a degree, but years of working with documents, webpages, and related; I have a good idea on what is professional and not (which is most of modern web design) and easy to read or not. This light theme even if not your cup of tea, shall not annoy you with the colour scheme and distract. Of course, there will be somebody out there that will vehemently disagree with my design choices.

The dark theme, is going to some time in the future, and I will have to think on the best strategy to align the two and figure out how SMF does it.

QuoteThe yen hit a 40-year low against the dollar this morning. Japan's finance minister is publicly threatening "decisive action." Speculative bets against the yen sit at a nine-year high. Japan just spent a record amount defending its currency this spring, larger than its entire intervention campaign during the 2024 crisis. A senior BOJ board member is now openly calling for rate hikes every few months.

Link: https://substack.com/home/post/p-204368360

The Python Secure Hash Generator (pyshg) , a small CLI Python 3 URL safe hash generator. It uses the secrets module so that the hash generated is from the hardware RNG making it more secure then software hash generators. I use it for my passwords and anytime I want a hash that can be used almost everywhere.

The maximum amounts of characters is 10, 240 which is 1024*10. I did ten generations of 1024 characters each, deleting the generation variable once it has been added to the pool. This is not necessary until one runs into embedded systems with very tight constraints on RAM.

Every run is a new seed that in a way resets the generation. If I did one big run of 10,240 characters it would less random. By splitting it into ten runs that is ten seeds and ten generations making the pool more random while also being easier on embedded systems.

I have used it for over a year on various distros of Linux (shells: bash + fish), Android, and the Linux container on ChromeOS flawlessly and it is pretty damn fast. If run in a script the number of characters to pick from the pool is supplied as an argument in standard unix format as so for a 32 character password/hash:
pysgh.py 32
If run in the shell interactively you will be prompted for the amount of characters you want picked from the pool.

It uses the Unlicense license which can be found on this site here: https://polar-sun.xyz/index.php?msg=14. A good read is the Unlicense webstie itself at https://unlicense.org. In short, the program is in the Public Domain. As free as free can be.

In this thread are the license(s) used here or is here for reference.